Gerónimo Ugarte
Gerónimo Ugarte is the Chief Economist at Valmex, where he analyzes economic trends and forecasts in response to changing trade policies, particularly those imposed by the United States on Mexico. With a background in economics from ITAM and advanced studies at Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona and the University of Tel Aviv, Ugarte has been vocal about the imminent risks of a technical recession in Mexico due to external pressures and declining domestic demand. He is preparing updated projections for the country's GDP, which have been significantly impacted by potential tariffs set to take effect on April 2, 2025.
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Recent news mentions
Gerónimo Ugarte explained the fiscal challenges facing the government due to increased social spending.
Claudia Sheinbaum celebra su primer año como presidenta de México con apoyo popular, pero con desafíos económicos
Guatemala· 2025-10-06
The report was prepared by chief economist Gerónimo Ugarte and economist Luis Fernando Campos.
Cómo la política migratoria de Trump causó la primera caída de remesas a México desde 2019Guatemala· 2025-09-02
Gerónimo Ugarte is the chief economist at Valmex Casa de Bolsa who discussed the moderation in banking credit growth.
El crédito bancario resiste guerra comercial, por ahora
Mexico· 2025-06-09
Gerónimo Ugarte is the chief economist at Valmex and comments on the uncertainty generated by the tariffs.
Por qué los aranceles de Trump a los vehículos son un golpe al corazón del comercio de NorteaméricaGuatemala· 2025-03-28
Gerónimo Ugarte is the new chief economist at Valmex, preparing updates on economic expectations.
Próximo 2 de abril, clave para proyecciones del PIBMexico· 2025-03-21