Stephen Toplis
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ (Bank of New Zealand), where he provides insights and analysis on economic trends and monetary policy. He has gained attention for his commentary on the Reserve Bank's decisions regarding the Official Cash Rate, particularly in relation to the current economic climate and its impact on inflation and interest rates. His expertise is widely recognized in the financial sector, making him a key voice in discussions about monetary policy and its implications for businesses and consumers.
Not in the pool (under ¢1).
Recent news mentions
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis believed the Budget should have appeased credit rating agencies.
Budget 2026: S&P Global Ratings underwhelmed by Govt’s efforts to return the books to surplus; economists wary of Treasury’s rosy forecasts
New Zealand· 2026-05-28
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis moved his forecasts ahead of the RBNZ.
Reserve Bank makes split vote call: Rates hikes are coming, how far will they go?New Zealand· 2026-05-27
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ and shared his expectations regarding the RBNZ's rate decisions.
Reserve Bank expected to bring forward interest rate hike as inflation risk growsNew Zealand· 2026-02-15
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ who believes the Monetary Policy Committee will consider a further cut in February.
OCR Preview: Another rate cut coming - but will it be the last?New Zealand· 2025-11-24
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said that selected prices for September supported the view that annual CPI peaked.
Inflation expected to hit top end of Reserve Bank target bandNew Zealand· 2025-10-20
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said 'the RBNZ is back on the warpath'.
BNZ cuts one-year fixed mortgage rate below 4.5% as next OCR decision loomsNew Zealand· 2025-09-29
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ who analyzed the retail sales data.
Inside Economics: Butter prices are falling - just not for you (yet), plus US Fed fallout and signs of a local retail recoveryNew Zealand· 2025-08-27
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ who discussed the RBNZ's dovish statement and its implications for rate cuts.
Two more rate cuts to come: Reserve Bank to the rescue as recovery stallsNew Zealand· 2025-08-20
BNZ chief economist Stephen Toplis believes the Reserve Bank doesn’t need to be deterred by near-term inflationary pressures.
OCR preview: Rate cut a shoo-in, but how much lower will the Reserve Bank go?New Zealand· 2025-08-17
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ and published a gloomy note revising down GDP expectations.
Inside Economics: NZ recession risks on the rise ... again! Plus: the boy who cried ‘tariff’ – Trump’s threats lose their biteNew Zealand· 2025-07-16
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ who warned about the risk of annual CPI pushing through 3%.
Inside Economics: The recovery hits a ‘brick wall’ ... why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real storyNew Zealand· 2025-06-18
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis took a deep dive into the topic last week in a note titled 'Retail on a knife edge'.
Retail therapy: Consumer fear stifling economic recovery – Liam DannNew Zealand· 2025-06-07Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ and described the recent call as 'a hawkish cut'.
OCR decision: More rate cuts to come ... or not? Reserve Bank hedges its betsNew Zealand· 2025-05-28
Stephen Toplis wrote that the RBNZ may need to suspend long-term forecasting.
Inside Economics: Reserve Bank’s big rate call today, plus are flat whites cheaper now than in the 1990s?New Zealand· 2025-05-28
Stephen Toplis is the BNZ head of research who comments on the fiscal impulse for the economy.
Budget 2025: Upbeat Treasury predicts rising house prices and GDP growthNew Zealand· 2025-05-22BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis had a go at summarising them this week in his report: Terrifying Tariffs.
Inside Economics: Big OCR call today as tariff turmoil threatens New Zealand recovery, will RBNZ have to cut deeper?New Zealand· 2025-04-08
Stephen Toplis is the BNZ head of research who provided insights on the RBNZ's cash rate expectations.
OCR Preview: Amid tariff turmoil, will the Reserve Bank cut again?New Zealand· 2025-04-07Toplis points out that markets are reluctant to fully price in a 3% low in the cash rate.
Inside Economics: Could Trump tariffs mean lower OCR, plus why house prices are just ‘plodding’New Zealand· 2025-04-01Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ.
Liam Dann: What recovery? The gap between the data and how we feel about the economy is growingNew Zealand· 2025-03-22
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis talked about just how long the road to recovery might be.
After our economy bounced along the bottom, now we have a reason for hope - EditorialNew Zealand· 2025-03-21
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ.
GDP: Is the economy’s ‘surprise’ bounce the start of a real recovery? – Liam DannNew Zealand· 2025-03-20
Stephen Toplis described the PSI news as the most important domestic news of the week.
Inside Economics: Why gold prices are soaring ... plus the one bright spot in a sea of grim forecastsNew Zealand· 2025-03-18
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said the cash rate should be cut 25 basis points per meeting.
Official Cash Rate (OCR) live updates: Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr speaks after OCR cut by 50 basis points to 3.75%New Zealand· 2025-02-19
Stephen Toplis is the head of research at BNZ and commented on the Reserve Bank's expected actions regarding the Official Cash Rate.
TSB bank moves to drop home loan rates ahead of Official Cash Rate decisionNew Zealand· 2025-02-17